March 29 Market Analysis (US)

S&P having 3rd of pullback and so far I don't believe we have reached at the worry point in this market. I am still holding to my positions and will do it until stopped out or see major weakness in the market. Today ended with the perfect hammer and I love hammer setups....one of my favorite setups....S&P went below March 26ths low and came be all the way up. This may be a end of pullback action in the market. Tomorrow will get better idea.

Today seems to be a very light day. I don't see much stock movements in the market.

Overbought-oversold ratio hasn't changed as we didn't have more action in the market.

Looking at the above situation, I feel comfortable holding on to my long positions and  keep looking for better positions.

We we get close below 1397, i may start thinking about taking some position out and go to cash....

March 29 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty is keep making lower low in this market. It did went below 5167 but deep buyers came in to the market and pushed the price way up till 5178. It shows some strength. I see little higher volume which can be good sign for the markets next move.

Market didn't have very strong positive momentum today which doesn't make me believe that we are done with the down days as of now.

Overbought-oversold ratio is came little down but still it is negative....

Looking at  above, i am not planning to take any position until market direction is confirmed.....

March 28 Market Analysis (US)

S&P has a major down day since morning. At one point it looked like a we will see 2% down day with heavy selling in the market. But market recovered latter and pushed up little higher which is showing some strength in this market.

Market breadth has been weak in last two days but not strong enough yet. I see little selling in the market.

Until we see close below breakout low 1397, I will keep looking for good long positions.

I see negative movement in overbought-oversold indicator. It wasn't strong enough though.

Looking at  above, I believe, one should be looking for high flyers stocks.... this can be good opportunity to find good pullbacks..... in this market.....

We can keep looking for long positions until we see close below 1397.

March 28 Market Analysis (US)

Nifty found a support around the 5179 price range. This is becoming a strong support area.  But Nifty is keep loosing its momentum which continuning since last 1 month. 

Today again we had a strong weakness in the market. looking at the negative momentum in the market, I would expect market to break down March 7th support in next couple of days and then break through that support and go much lower .....

Overbought-oversold ratio is also has a sharp negative move in last couple of days .... this is a big negative move

Looking at the above, I think Nifty will break the 5167 support and may find little support around 5100 but may find strong support at 4892.. Unless we get good consolidation in this price range for some more days.....

Not a good market to trade until Nifty shows us its direction for next move....

March 27 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty showing resistance to break the 5170 range. If we get consolidation in this area for couple of more days than that may be good sign for the another push high. But looking at the recent action in the market, it seems like we may break that 5167 range  soon.....(again we don't know what will happen just a speculation)

We still have negative momentum in the market. We need a strong positive momentum after a consolidation for another push for upside.

We still have strong negative move in overbought-oversold ratio that forces me to believe that we have much downside in this market. Until this ratio settles down we will see more down push....

Looking at the current situation, I don't plan to trade until market direction is confirmed..... 

March 26 Market Tips (US)

I missed my entries on all three yesterday....

I am going to try again...as I believe today S&P will digest its move and may consolidate....

INSP: Good price to enter is between 13.14 to 12.80 with stop at 12.20


FSYS:  good price to enter is between 26 - 27 with stop 25.25 and still targeting the 29 price....


MGAM: Good price to enter between 11.22 to 10.80 with stop at 10.34 and target is 13.


HOG:  Good price to enter: 50.20 with stop at 47.90


For detailed graph for above picks.... please look at the following link


I would wait for market to open and see hot it behaves then add little by little position.....

March 26 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty is showing the weakness since last month. We has some sharp recovery kind of move on the way but overall market is hasn't turned positive since then. Nifty is about to touch the 5167 support line. We dont know if it is just a test of about to break that support tomorrow. I can see that it is going down with little lower volume but that is not a major thing in the market as we have huge weakness in late Feb.

Market has lost its relative strength in last month and I don't see any improvement in it.

Today we have bit negative push in the market. Breadth is really weak and looking at it either we can get closing in this region of much lower tomorrow. Chances of going high is less at this point.

Overbought/oversold ratio turned sharply to negative side which is showing real weakness in this market.

Looking at above situation, I believe market is heading towards 4900 in next couple of weeks until we get deep buyers coming in this market .........

I am going to wait and see how NIFTY behaves at 5167 and then will decide on trading opportunity. For now better strategy to look for very weak stock and short them for daytrading but for longer term its not a good time to make any decision.....

Weak: ivrclinfra, hdil,cipla,idfc,lupin,rcom,

Strong: bpcl, voltas,

Good price; ktkbank, axixbank, m&M,maruti, sintex,punjlloyd,vijayabank,lt, dlf,

March 23 Market Analysis (NSE)

After Thursdays big fall in Nifty we had sympathy stable upside move. It wasn't very positive move in the market and there was no strength. If we don't get strength in a day or two we should expect much downward movement towards end of the week.

Since last 4 weeks overbought-oversold ratio hasn't been moving much it has moving in a small range and hence we are not seeing big moves in the market (20%+ move).

So far Nifty has found a little support at 5225 price range and it may stay here until finding its direction....

At this time in the Nifty, I don't like to take much risk and better of if I stay in cash only....

Once strategy would be to be in cash until 5364 or 5167 level is broken because at that time we will get better idea about markets next directional move.

This is a good time to go back and review our past trades and learn from them.......

Some of the good setups list....

Strong setup: Adanipower, Hcltech,maruti,

March 23 Market Tips (US)

FSYS: Still looks good to me.

 For me, good price to enter is between 26 - 26.70 with stop 25.25 and still targeting the 29 price....

INSP: Very small dollar volume. Not a good one to take big position but still based on its setup, it looks like a big time winner in short time so worth taking some risk.
 Broke out of its last 4 years price range two weeks ago and looks like having little pullback in last two weeks.

Good price to enter is between 13 to 12.80 with stop at 12.20

MGAM:  Looks Good volume accumulation with strong earning to back it up.....
It recently broke out of 6 weeks of accumulation with strong volume and right now consolidating... Good one to consider

Good price to enter betwee 11.18 to 10.80 with stop at 10.34 and target is 13.

March 23 Market Analysis (US)

Fridays action in S&P shows that at this high, we still have demand in the market. Every dip so far is lifted up by the deep buyers. Since start of the this year, all pullbacks lasted only 3 days which shows strength in this market.

Market had moved very sharply in last 4 months. Its dream for most of the traders and still some have missed this move as they were waiting for the nice pullback. Lets look at the Daily, Weekly and Monthly graph and you can see the sharp angle of the trend line for this move.....

If market goes above 1405, it is likely to touch 1431 resistance line. If we see weakness next week, I would not add short position till we break 1366 level with sharp negative breadth in the market. I got burned badly in trying to pick the market top and I am not going waste my time on that analysis....

Market breadth is not showing either weakness not strength. It will be interesting to see how it behaves next week and hot it affects the market breadth. So far every breakouts had strong positive breadth in the market and it has sustained it well.

Oversold-overbought ratio is also not showing much movement.

Looking at above situation, I don't feel comfortable to take high risky long position. I need to see either strong breadth or overbought-oversold ratio to be in positive move for couple days before taking high risk long position. I hate to be stuck in choppy market....

I will be looking for both long and short setups...... just to be prepared for next week......

March 23 Market TIps (US)

If markets shows strength then these are some of the stocks which looks good but if these supports are broken... best bet is to wait and see how it ends today...

FSYS: Looks very strong here. It sustained to yesterdays big down day and didn't break the long term trendline. I am planning to get back into this one.

XEL and PLL also looked very strong yesterday.... they didn't seem to give up their long term support good sign

XEL:

PLL:

March 22 Market Analysis (US)

S&P had 3 straight down days but I don't see any major weakness in the market.

We had major negative market breadth but until we see S&P below 1375 in this market I don't consider this as a trend breaking down rally. 


Overbought-oversold ratio turned negative today. After such a big push in the market we should be expecting some pullback or consolidation. I believe, we are ready to hit the consolidation (frustrating) phase.


If S&P break the 1375 support, S&P may be looking to hit the 1342..... I am just going to wait for tomorrows action before making any move in this market.


I believe this is good time to be in cash than be heavily invested...... 

March 22 Market Analysis (NSE)

As predicted yesterday, Nifty went down but I didn't expect this major reversals. I was hoping for 1.5% max reversal. It has closed at the light support level and next support level is 5167 and looking at the recent action in the market if it breaks below 5167, Nifty can have rapid downdays till 4800-4900  range.

Since last couple of days we have negative momentum comming to this market which is a big weakness sign and today we saw the result of it. Overbought-oversold ratio also turned to negative.

I always believe that this markets are heavily manuapulated. Big funds/traders control this market big time. Yesterday suddenly market went up like crazy and suddenly it went down like rocket.... that is not logical reason expect..... somebody knew something and they wanted to off-load or load some stocks at particular price..... because there was a big move in the market and no volume at all..... that is odd combination and I would say that somebody was playing with our dear indexes.......

I would wait till it clears 5167 before taking any major shorting opportunity.  So far market is weak ... long term trend is up and until we cross below swing point.... we should be in cash..... This is a high volatility situation .....

I made a bad decision yesterday to suggest any stocks .... I knew market was weak and I should not suggest any picks. Again as they say.... emotion sometime takes control over you ...yesterday was one of those days

I will not trade untill we get heavy push high or close below 5167......

Weak stock: RELCAPITAL (if it crosses 382), jindalstel,rpower,finantech,cipla,

March 21 Market Tips (US)

PLL If todays market is week remove 50% position

xel move stop to 25.91

glng: remove 50% position

fsys-move stop to 25.63


Not planning to add anything new today as I see weakness in the market. If we have pullback, will try to buy some decent pullback oppourtunity.

March 21 Market Analysis (US)

S&P didn't have much movement yesterday but I see that many stocks are loosing momentum. They are pulling back, it doesn't seem like a heavy pullback but I see little pullback.

Overboug-oversold ratio is showing the weakness in the market. In last 7 session market went up little but overbought-oversold ratio came down sharply, which is showing weakness in the market.

Immediately, we may see pullback of around 2% in the market but closing below 1375 will put this market in much down side atleast upto 1342.

This may be a good time to review your current position and see if you can start taking some profit out of move stop little closer without being too close to be stopped out.

March 21 Market Tips (NSE)

Again, Not a good market to have big investment.. wait for momentum before entering big....
Finantech: Move stop up to 740

GVKPIL (GVK Power & Infrastructure): has been consolidating since last 2 months with very high volume. It has major resistance at 20 and strong support at 16.51. Looking at charts I believe this stock has 8 Rs. possible move if it move above resistance.

Entry price 18.10 with stop at 17.25 and cover at 20

HDIL: Same as above.... having heavy accumulations here 

 Entry price at 95.44 with stop at 92.89 and cover at 115 or 131

March 21 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty had major upside push today and everybody started asking me is this the end of pullback here? Pundits started taking about lets go long guys lets go long. But in reality it doesn't look like a strong push for bulls move. Not many stocks moved higher in my radar, I would have been excited if more stocks have participated in this rally.

Overbought-oversold ratio turned little positive but not enough to get excited for long long positions.

Again it was a good positive day but overall I don't thing this is a very strong market as of yet.. Once market goes above 5421 I will be ready to take higher risk in the market till then I will look for both long and short setups....

Looking at many charts in the market, it doesn't look like a promising rally and it may not survive tomorrow based on todays action. But if we get major push in the market, it may go higher....... not a good time to invest big....

March 20 Market Tips (US)

As you may know, I am holding FSYS and XEL from couple of days. Did really good in FSYS but still holding them.

I am thinking about adding little more position in both with my profit and see how it works out.

FSYS:  I may add little between 27 and 26.66 and stop below 25

XEL: I may add little more between 26.62 and 26 with stop below 25.75 (tight stop.....)

My goal here to ride this up wave in full force. I have been lightly invested so far as I started reinvesting since Jan mid and I missed major bottom of December to load into positions. I was working on other projects (yes, that sucks but that's life)

Have a happy and profitable trading to all.....

March 20 Market Analysis (US)

S&P had a little heavy selling today but it was not strong enough to get worried about the bullish movement.  We have immediate support at 1378 and until it is broker, I will be looking for long positions.

Overbought-oversold ratio turned sharply down but still it is positive.

At this time this still a strong bull market and until we see heavy weakness, I am going to look for long setups.....

March 20 Market Tips (NSE)

Market looks bearish on the surface but most setups I came across are long setups.....

I am going to list some long setups and will see how they are woking out.... I only suggest little position in this ones

ivrclinfra: Entry at 52.36 stop at  50.41 cover at 58

Finantech: Entry at 750.50 stop at 719 and cover at 887.

March 20 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty had positive day after 4 days but still I don't see positive movement in this market. Market breadth is still negative. 

We may get little reaction towards upwards as overbought-oversold ratio hasn't turned heavy negative side that shows that we have many congestion in this market. 

Looking at this we may have little high push but if we don't have positive moment in this market, it may not be able to hold back and market can push right down.

Short positions should work fine but I find more long setups and less shorting setups..... 

March 20 Market Tips (US)

Looks like a great market for longs, I am planning to add some position in FSYS if it crosses its last swing high point. I may be adding some glng and xel as they are running low.

I didn't have time to analyze the market thoroughly last night but I think FLT is at good price to add some here...

FLT: I may enter at 38 stop 36.47 

March 19 Market Tips (NSE)

JPAssociat: I missed the target yesterday. But looking at the recent price action, I would like to take an another shot at this one.

    Short at 78.80 with stop at 80.49 (tight stop) cover at 68.40

Adanipower:  Looks good for shorting at  71.18 stop at  73.44 cover at  63.56

Sintex seems to be ready to setup in a week or two..... for us to take long position 

HCLTECH  looks very strong here

HindPetro and JSWENERGY looks very  weak...

March 19 Market Analysis (NSE)

We have systematic selling building up in this market.  Since March 9th I see that market breadth is going down everyday which is a systematic process and this is not good for bull move in this market. 

Overbought-oversold ratio is in negative territory but still not strong enough for me to start taking heavy short positions.  We have immediate support at 5166 and i that is broken, then we are looking for much lower Nifty reading in this market.

Looking at above situation, I am looking for a good shorting candidates now.

March 16 Market Tips (US)

fsys: started showing up some weakness. I am seeing higher lows but it is not able to make higher highs that shows supply is still there for this stock. I will give next day or two to this stock and if it closes blow 25.40, I may remove this from my portfolio.

GLNG: I may add some in this one in a day or two

UPL: I missed the entry in this one and got stopped out twice.  I would like to enter in this one once it crossed pivot swing point.

XEL: This can be good long term entry here. Being accumulated since last 3 months.

     Entry at 26.21 with stop at 25.60

March 16 Market Analysis (US)

S&P is in a strong up trend and until we see heavy selling days we should be looking for good long setups.

Market breadth is positive and overbought-oversold ratio is also positive. 

Looking at above indicator, I am going look for low risk long positions. Somehow, all time high breakouts are not working well for me. Looks like I am becoming a pullback guy......

March 16 Market Tips (NSE)

This is not a good market to take major risk .....

But JPAssociat and Lupin showing major weakness in the market

JPAssociat: short at 80.83 cover at 75.42 stop 83.6

(again this can be used for day trading or short term trading....  in next day or two we will have better about markets next move and then we can take major risk)

March 16 Market Analysis (NSE)

On Friday we had a major down movement in Nifty. I haven't had time to review the budget details but looking at the market action, it seems like that market is happy with the budget and since last 5 sessions we have negative breadth going up everyday.

Overbought-oversold ratio is turning bearish today and next down day will make it sharp upwards movements in negative territory.

We have next support area at 5168 and resistance area at 5492.

Looking at the market condition, I believe short position can work better in this market.

March 16 Market Tips (US)

DRYS: this stock had a heavy volume build up from Feb 2 to Feb 15 then it had orderly pullback. Yesterday broke out of swing pivot point with heavy volume. This is a very low priced one and I may take some risk in this one.

Good entry price would be 3.34 and stop at 3.09 (little wide stop but again I dont like tight stops)...cover would be at 3.85 or 4.35

FLT: Strong earning and heavy volume at the breakout......I may enter at 38 stop 36.47 cover 

March 15 Market Analysis (US)

S&P seems to be having second leg of move to reach the 1432.  Market breadth is getting more and more positive that makes me believe that we may be seeing much higher prices in future.

Overbought-oversold ratio is positive and moved sharp up today. 

Looking at above, this is a good market to look for long position until we see major weakness in the market.....

March 15 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty had a reversal and yes it was expected as well. Looking at the recent weak move in the market, it was expected that market can make reverse move any day.

Market breadth was negative but not very strong that we have to have follow through day tomorrow. Overbought-oversold ratio was once again not saying much. It seems like market is just waiting for budget day and then make its move.

I don't like to take big gamble at this point in this market situation. I would say time to close all positions and if you are sitting on heavy profits, move your stops closer and take 25% profits. 

Based on my Point and figure chart, we are right at the key support area and if market goes in any direction, it may have around 550 point move which is a big move.....

March 14 Market Tips (NSE)

YesBank:  Multi year breakout with strong volume power. I usually don't like the fast moved stock but this one has big volume push behind it and it can be big winner in future....

Good entry price between: 380-374 with stop at 362.50  (if market opens up at low and if you can grab this one at cheap price then you can try to get in at low but lower than 374 is not a good buy.... that may be a weakness in this stock...) This is a wide stop so you may want to buy less quantity to cover the risk.....

TCS: Today this one fell with 400% volume. That shows big supply coming in to this stock.

 Short at 1185 with stop 1215 and decent cover price at 1100

March 14 Market Analysis (US)

S&P had a no activity day today. After major move like yesterday, market needs some time to digest the gain. I don't consider today's very small candle as  a possible reversal candle.

Market breadth was negative today, it was little higher negative day compare to positive breadth. But I am not seeing major worry thing in market breadth.

Overbought-oversold ratio still in positive side. It did went down little but still in bullish territory. Many stocks still must be making highs in the market.

Looking at above, I will be looking for good long candidate and keep some good shorting opportunity in mind for future.

March 14 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty had 4th up day in a row and today it crossed 5449 resistance level as well that makes most believe that this is a healthy market. I am surprised that we still don't have any strong breadth coming in to this market and Nifty is still moving higher and higher. I am going to wait till it hits 5622 and if we still don't get strong breadth. I may suggest to have tight stop or start taking some profit as with this kind of breadth (not bad but not strong either) it will be hard to cross that resistance level and we may see sharp downwards movement from their.

Overbought-oversold ratio is showing strong move in this market. Not many stocks are making higher highs and it may due the fact that they were oversold in first place but again, oversold ratio is going up as well. This is not a positive sign for the market. 

I am still going to looking for both good short and long setups just in-case as I am not confident about this market as of yet.

March 14 Market Tips (US)

Save: Heavy volume breakout from last 20 days....
  IBD investors must be all over this one for sure......
  Love to enter at 20 with stop at 19.15

GLNG:  This one had  a heavy pullback in last 4 weeks. Seems to be find support now. Looking at the two heavy volume day with little price change makes me believe that this stock is attracting heavy buyers (or may be  short covering but I don't seem to believe it needs this much volume for two straight days)
(again not a good to add high risk but can have little at this point and add more latter)

Good entry price is 39.80 or (high fly market....40.12) with stop at 38.20 and cover at 44.45

UPL: This one stopped me out yesterday. it sucks but thats traders life....(never get tired....)
         I am going to try this one last time if Iget stopped out, I will enter on break out and not during pullback
    Good Entry price: 22.80 with stop at 22.40 (Yes very tight stop.... i may add very light position)

I Still like to add more FSYS with tight stop.... will see about that

Lets see if market move from here...... with this stocks..... 

March 13 Market Analysis (US)

Dream day for traders with long positions. Every junk seemed to be working in this high flying day. Highest move since Jan 3rd. Next major resistance level is at 1432. Today market took out its long term resistance and  now may be ready for another big move.

I am not really impressed with the market breadth. I would have been very happey if I would have seen little higher market breadth but it was average market breadth, it was as much as of feb 26th (S&P only had 1.1% move on that day).

Overbought-oversold ratio moved rapidly today and it is showing very strong sign in this market.

Looking at above situation, I feel that market is healthy for long position but may have light reversal in short term.

March 13 Market Tips (NSE)

Today I am not able to find any great setup ..... So this time lets try to catch a tail of any candle and see if we can fly with it..... again market is not great so take light risk with this positions and don't try to get all this positions.... try one or two only....

First choice Mcdowell-n  good entry price is 500 with stop at 480 and cover at 603 or 685

second choice: Voltas:  entry price 120.75 with stop at 116.5 and cover at 147

If you see major weakness in the news and market.... careful in taking trade....

BioCon looks to be good candidate for day traders..... this one had a big news and also it has huge selling yesterday. Based on markets movement one can play with it. ( one should know that this one is a high risk trade...)

March 13 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty again had a good follow through day. It is right against the Feb 27th resistance of 5449 and  we will find out how it is working by tomorrow. Today it took out Feb 7 - 14 congestion areas high which is a good sign and closed all the way high. 

Market breadth is getting into positive side and we are getting good momentum in this market. I am waiting for a strong positive market breadth to look for high risk opportunity.  Negative breadth is going down in this market.

I am not really excited by the overbought-oversold ratio. Its not making enough move with the index.  In last 4 days index made around 4% move and we don't see much overbought stocks in the market also oversold stocks are not going down much.....

I would prefer to wait till Nifty crosses 5449 before taking high risk position till then keep looking for good short and long position candidates......

March 13 Market Tips (US)

SPPI looks good for me but first they are Pharmaceuticals and another one is that they are having conference tomorrow. I am not a subject expert in this field and I know stocks in this field have some wild moves so I am staying away from adding new position.

All other positions stay as it is.... I may add some FSYS to my portfolio again but PLL, UPL will stay as it is

TZA looks good for me to add to cover some risk and hope to add little today.

I may add TZA at 18.36 with stop at  17.96 and cover at 21.96....

March 12 Market Analysis (US)

Today S&P almost touched 1374 resistance again but didn't able to cross that resistance level. In last two weeks S&P has made around 2.5% move. I am considering 1342 and 1377 as a channel until stock breaks out of 1377 and close above it, I don't feel comfortable taking any high risk trade. 

It has been little frustrating situation since last couple of weeks. Shorts and long both are not working well....

Market breadth is building up positively but we still have strong weakness behind us. Again today we had higher selling in the market.

Overbought-oversold ratio is positive but still not very strong movement. Stock seem to have easy downwards movement than upwards movement. In another word. stocks tends to make major down move with light volume but needs big volume to make move up...... this shows that we are right against the major supply zones and many stocks are hitting major resistance above them

This is a confusing situation and I am not ready to take major risk in the market.....

We need to be ready with both long and short setups .......to follow the market....

March 12 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty has a nasty reversal after a very long time. Technical stand point this is a pure weakness in the market. Weekly graph last week had a very strong hammer in the market with decent volume which is a good sign but today action is not good for high risk positions.

Market breadh is still strong but we still have major selling behind us that is forcing current index to stay low or consolidate in this area. 

Overbought-oversold ratio has barely turned positive today which is not a major thing

Nifty is right against the 5449 resistance level of Feb 27 and we are keep getting heavy supply when we reach that price area. Until that resistance is crossed, one should not start taking high risk positions in their portfolio.

I will be looking for both long and short setups

March 12 Market Tips (NSE)

LITL: I still consider this as a good trade. I missed two opportunity to enter in this stock.
  Lets see if we get this filled......

   Enter at 19.29 with stop at 18 with cover at 23.79

Not a good time to take major risk.... just a light position

Another Strong stock: Voltas, acc

Weak stock: CIPLA, lupin, finantech,

March 9 Market Tips (US)

Today, I am not thinking about adding major risk in my portfolio. For me, this is not a good time to add risk. But some of the positions I am monitoring from long time,

UPL: Has been having great accumulation, This industry is under heavy accumulation in recent times. As of Friday, price is at the lowest level since last 2-4 weeks and Iam thinking about adding some at this rage

Good entry price for me: 23.42 stop 22.76 and cover at 26.50 (for short term holding... I may change the target...)

looking at the markets volatility and last weeks major swing, I would like to add TZA just-in case we have major down movement in next day or two.....

TZA entry at 18.28 with stop at 17.96 and cover at 21.96 or 26

Another good to mention is the SPPI....

March 9 Market Analysis (US)

S&P changed 0.1% last week. We had major down days and a quick reversal from mid of the week. Looking at the market breadth, I don't see any heavy buying in this market. I would like S&P to 1377 to add high risk positions. If we get the supply like last week, we may see a quick reversal to test low level of 1343 of last week. 

Overbought-oversold ratio shows positive sign in this market. 

In general, I am not ready to take high risk unttil S&P crosses 1377 level. I will be looking for both long and short possibilities and mostly adding light long position and may add TZA for backup..

March 9 Market Tips (NSE)

For me this still not a good market to take high risk. 

I hate when I miss good trade and that happened with LITL (Lanco Infratech) on friday. It looked ready to make move but my entry didn't work out well.

Lets try today and see.....

LITL: entry 19.70 with stop at 18 with target at 31
 This is very wide stop so you should not be taking high risk with this one....you should have very light positions if you want.

M&M: good entry price seems to be at 674.2 with stop at 660 and cover at 707 or 746 (since market looks little risky... I may be looking for quick exit at 707)

Again not a good time to take high risk.... just little risk is a good idea....

Update:

We were stopped out on Finantech on Friday... but I am not happy about loosing 6.7% move  that stock made on Friday.

lupin: I see major weakness in this stock and came to our price.... I would like to see how it play out in next days....

March 9 Market Analysis (NSE)

We had a major positive day on Friday. It was the strongest day after January 6th. This may be another start for the bull move but it is not a good time to take major risk.I would wait till the market crosses 5456 which is a pivot point. 

We did have the strong day but market breadth was not very very strong. It most looked like we will have more positive breadth  than Feb 28 but it was just 50% of the breadth so I am not really excited about this rally.

Overbought-oversold ratio was not helpful either. It shows that frieday's rally was weak.

Looking at above three, I believe, this is not a strong rally and until I feel this is a strong rally we should not take major risk in the market. 

I will be looking for bother short and long positions.

March 9 Market Tips (US)

FSYS: Looking very good excellent fundamentals and good multual funds addition.
      This looks to be a good candidate for long entry
       I have two entry price: 26.75 and 25.14 with stop at 24 (wide very wide stop...) and cover at 28.92

PLL: had an excellent run in recent time has pulledback little bit and had climactic action yesterday....
    Entry price 61.11 stop at 58.46 with cover price at 64.5 (again a wide stop.... but I don't like to have tight stop to be hit frequently...)

Update:

Previous shorting opportunities are not working well... if market opens up high i would close out both of my position UNFI and TRI.

March 8 Market Analysis (US)

S&P seems to be heading towards 1385. Its little fustrating market but we have to follow the market. Market is telling us that for every dip we have buyers since last December. 1341 level has become a immediate support area. Until that level is broker, I will not consider taking short opportunity.

Market breadth is showing systematic buying since last two days.We almost didn't have the any selling in this market.

Overbought-oversold ratio has turned barely to positive side. This really shows that there are huge buyers and they don't want this market to go down from here...

Looking at the above situation, I am going to look for little low risk long position now..... (have to change hates.....from shorting to long positions)

March 7 Market Analysis (US)

s&p had little positive day but we have a strong negative day behind us and todays positive move can be a shock move as well. Yesterday we were right against the support of 1341 and tomorrow will be the interesting day to watch before taking any more trading opportunity.

Market had positive breadth but we also had strong negative breadth behind us and until we see strong positive breadth, i don't feel good to start trading long setups.

oversold-overbought ratio has turned strongly and if we have little stronger day tomorrow this ratio will give me an indication to take long setups.

Looking at the above situation, I still believe in taking very low risk short position and at the same time keep your eye open for tomorrows market. If it turns out to be a strong one, we should cut our strong positions.

I will be looking for both short and long setups to be ready for next markets move.

March 7 Market Tips (NSE)

Looking at the market condition, I don't feel comfortable to suggest any new trade....

I am going to update this post.....and add two long entries.... long long term... this is not a short term play...

LITL: entry 18.75 with stop at 18 with target at 31

(If market opens up high.... one should close finantech position)


Update:

We got Finantech yesterday, it went all the way close to our stops and then came back. I would like to hold on this one as we are right against the stop and see how it plays out

lupin: I see major weakness in this stock and came to our price.... I would like to see how it play out in next days....

relinfra: didn't come to our price and I don't suggest one should try to get this one now.......


Following is the stock list I am looking very closely.....
 I really like to get long position in mcdowell-n looking at the volume and current price we can have low risk entry with tight stop..... but again i dont like this market.... so better stay aside

Strong stocks: acc, maruti, tcs, idbi, litl,vijayabank,

Weak stocks: IDFC, adanient (two days ago it looked like good stock), drreddy, lupin, finantech, dlf,

Long Term: IDBI, sintex, mcdowell-n, ivrclinfra, relcapital

March 7 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty did have a light day today without much action. Market breadth was negative but until I see strong market breadth, we should keep looking for a good shorting opportunity and some strong setup once market turns around.

 

Looking a at the last two days action, it looks like we don't have heavy supply coming into this market. We had heavy supply at 5600 but after that really we didn't see strong supply (selling). I would not be surprised if market turns around from here.

 

Overbought-Oversold ratio still in the negative side, little higher then yesterday but not significant change. 

 

I also look at the fibonancci ratio and market is right against the 61.8% retracement, market usually shows some resistance at this area and we are seeing some resistance since last two days. I would not be surprised if we see little bounce from here.....

 

Its a fustrating market as market can go to any direction from here. During shorting the best money to be made is during the heavy fall at the top.....after that it gets little fustrating.... 

 

I will be looking for some shorting and long candidate.... as I like to be prepared for both situation.....

March 6 Market Tips (US)

TRI: This stock is right against the pivot and has been consolidated with high volume since last 4 days... Today it had 300% volume which is right against the pivot. For me this is just a good setup to short.....

I believe, good price to short this one is at 28.60 with stop at 29.26 and cover at 27.20.

UNFI: Consolidating since Feb 10 with some heavy volume. Real weakness started showing up since last 4 days. Its little late to short this one but still I feel this can be a good trade....
   Good price to short at 45 with stop at 46.25 and covet seems to be around 42.20.

Beav: Consolidating since Feb 6th with decent volume and today brokeout of the consolidation price....with allmost 200% volume.

   Good price to short is at 45.48 with stop at 46.78 and cover at 41.50.

March 6 Market Analysis (US)

S&P  is right at the support zone of 1341. Next support zone we have is at around 1295. Looking at the todays action S&P may very well touch 1295 support zone before end of this week. Today was the largest price move since Jan 1st and it was down side. Finally S&P is hit with the supply after massive rally. 

Today we had the most negative breadth since start of this rally with most negative dollar volume. Which means this downwards rally not only had small caps but also big caps participations. Looking at this market breadth, we should see at least 1295 level in S&P.

Overbought-oversold ratio turned sharp negative this also support that we should see 1295 very soon in S&P.

Looking at this market actions, I will be looking for good shorting opportunity tonight.

March 6 Market Tips (NSE)

Sintex:  I think this is a good price to add Sintex for long time. Not a good time accumulate big but still start accumulating little is a good point. One strategy would be to add little everyday until it moves above 81.

Some of the shorting opportunities:

Finantech: short at 856 stop at 877 and cover at 762 looks very good setup but the problem with this one is that if market goes higher it may hit the stop.... so watch very carefully if market starts going up.....

Lupin: good price to short seems to be at 500 and decent stop at 519 with cover at 460

Relinfra :good price to short seems to be at 645 with stop at 680 and cover at 549
    

March 6 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty today made a nasty reversal today. Nifty travelled 175 points from open to closing which is a big number in a day. Strictly, Technical perspective it looks very weak and we should have followup down day.

Market breadth was negative but it wasn't very strong negative today, infect it was just 50% negative day than Feb 27. Which makes me believe that, not many stocks went down today and thats not a weakness, When I see big down day, i want to see major weakness in the market. Tomorrow should give us a good picture, its fustrating move in the market today.

Overbought-oversold ration turned negative but we don't see many negativity there as well. Based on todays action, I would like to see sharp jump in oversold ratio which didn't happen today.

Looking at all above things, I believe that market is weak (until proven otherwise) and shorting can be beneficial but at the same time market can make bounce in a day or two...one need to be ready to cover their trades if market go against them.

I will be looking for both shorting and long position but will focus more on shorting side trade setups....

Feb 5 Market Analysis (US)

S&P is in the consolidation phase right now. S&P has immediate support at 1352 and if S&P goes down then we may see much lower price.

Market breadth shows selling building up in this market. As I said it before, this is a good time have tight stop or start taking some profit from long positions.

Oversold-Overbought ratio is still in negative territory.it basically shows that stocks which were extended are having consolidation or pullbacks.

Have your tight stop in place and will see how market behaves from here.....

I am not feeling comfortable to trade unless we have a very strong setups....

Feb 5 Market Tips (NSE)

I would like to see todays result before making decision about the trade......

Following are some of the good setups for trading when market gives us any direction....(most likely today)

Strong stocks list: M&M, acc,axisbank,lt, maruti, sintex, TCS, adanient, ivrclinfra, hdil, relinfra,bhartiartl, tatasteel

Weak stock : JindalStel, Finantech, GVKPIL, Lupil, DrReddy, GAIL, raymond,relcapital,sesagoa,

(Stocks in bold are good setup in my book)

Feb 5 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty today tested Feb 27th low and found support at 5280. Today was little higher negative day but again looks like market wanted to test that low and see its affects. We doesn't seems to have much negative sentiment in the market that is supporting this market so far.

Market breadth is certainly negative but not enough to start taking shorting trade at this point. If market goes any further down from here, I will be taking shorting position for sure. Lot of people say that volatility is your best friend. Yes as long as you are trading without emotion and have proven system and can sit in front of computer entire day.  I don't like to sit in front of the computer entire day to watch market. I like to do swing trading (minimum 1 day holding) and hate day trading so I like volatility but I like to get little safe entry.

Overbought-oversold ratio hasn't changed much. Until its turned negative, I may wait but major down day will push it to negative side and very well be ready for shorting.

If market finds support here and bounces from here and if it is a strong push higher with strong positive market breadth, I will be looking for long positions. 

Trading is like an art, you have to be open for all possibilities and can't get stuck to one choice only or you will be burned down by the market. 

Just looking at the price and volume of NIFTY, it seems like a weak test of low of Feb 27 and if market get demand it may push rapidly higher from there.... but there are both ideas.... we dont know where it will be headed...

In nutshell, there wasn't much action in this market and after tomorrows results market will make its move. I will be ready with my watch like of strong and weak stock and will see where to go from there.....

March 2 Market Analysis (US)

On graph it looks like a consolidation between  1366 and 1375. As I said earlier, we have selling building up in this market. This shows market is loossing little momentum here.

Market breadth is showing little selling in the market but not heavy enough to worry. But worry part is the overbought-oversold ratio. I am little worried with that ratio. That ratio went significantly low yesterday. I am looking forward to closing some of my positions here or have tight stops so I don't loose my profits if market goes down from here.

Looking at the market recent behavior, pullback or consolidation looks like a possibility. Market may go up higher but for me this is a weakness in the market. If market proves me wrong then I will enter again in my positions. I don't have problem entering back in but I have problem loosing my money when I know little weakness is there.....

Feb 2 Market Tips (NSE)

I am not feeling comfortable at this point to trade...... as market can go in any direction.... (My feeling is that i can easily go up )

Adanient looks very strong at this point and seems to be available at bargain price. It has very good accumulation going on since last 7 weeks. If market is supportive, I would  have taken this trade for sure.
For very very high risk taker: Adanient can be a good shot.... entry at 350 stop at 334 and cover at 423 (as market goes to negative.... it will hit your stops.... but high risk take like this kind of a market.......)

Dishtv looks to be available for good price for very long time holder. But for better entry one should wait for better setup.

Following are the stocks in my close watch list and I will be looking at them closely........

Strong stock list: acc, asianpaint,bpcl,deltacorp,grasim,ktkbank,lt, axisbank, M&M,maruti,sintex,tcs, adanient, idbi,punjlloyd,jpassociat,ivrclinfra, hdil, relinfra,bhartiartl,

Weak stock list: DLF, jindalstel,adanipower, rpower, finantech,gvkpil,lupin,drreddy, 

Update: 

I suggested Maruti on Feb 29th. That one could have given them 6% in 2 days...... not bad, I guess..... But gain this is not a good market to trade for me....

March 2 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty seems to be finding some support at 5330 price range. If we get a longer term consolidation in this range, we may be getting ready for another higher push and this may be a very quick move. The longer we consolidate the higher move we can expect from here. We may get little pullback in the process but as long as we don't go down with heavy volume and heavy negative market breadh, we are looking good for another big higher push in this market.

Current market breadh is not telling much as there not much action in the market. Overbought-oversold ratio is doing the same thing, not moving in any direction at all. 

But again we need to remember that we have major selling right behind us so need to be very careful. A little negative news or sentiment in the market can have rapid downwards movement in this market. 

Next support area is 5170 and strong resistance at 5600.

I am going to look for both strong and weak setups to be prepared for next week as market can go in any direction.

March 1 Market TIPS (US)

Deck has dropped a lot at its multi year support line. Yesterday it has bounced back (I didn't see its last two days action or I would have taken the position in it). I don't like to chase to I would be looking to add little at low of yesterday and see if I get filled.

Deck entry at 75.10 with stop at 72.70 and target is 89.

Update: Time to close AFL (may be around higher 47) this one not behaving as I expected. Goes higher in the day but can't hold its higher price. It closes near the low since last 2 days. 

March 1 Market Analysis (US)

I see little selling building up in this market., which usually happens after a long run like this. Consolidating market is very frustrating to trade if you don't have enough patient. 

Marketbreadth and overbought-oversold ratio haven't changed much. There is not much happening in this market.

This is not a market to take very high risk. I would keep my risk limited and wait for little momentum in this market in either side.

I am still looking for healthy pullback or consolidating setups for low risk long entry.

March 1 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty had light gap down day today. Nifty showed some strength during the day. It went down earlier but during the closing it close above 50% daily range which shows that there are demand below todays low.

There wasnt much activity in the market so Market breadth hasn't changed much still in limbo situation as we have heavy selling days following by heavy positive days. 

overbought-oversold ration hasn't changed much either. Everybody seems to be waiting for market to move in either direction. 

On standard deviation lines, current market is oversold on short term (2 months) but in longer term (6 months) its is overbought.

I am still not comfortable to take trade in this choppy market.