12-30 Market Analysis

SPX is sitting at the key price level. It has a strong resistance above it and in recent times it has dropped from this level 4 times. 


During last drop it took half bars to recover all points which shows accumulation. 


I certainly don't expect that this resistance can be broken this week but looking at the recent action, it seems like its long due now. We may see little drop from this range but it seems like it will recover it fast. If it falls back it should not fallback under 1220 level if we are expecting it to jump higher.....

12-28 Market Analysis

Major stocks were down today with little higher volume than last two days but still very low trading week. Nifty seems to be heading towards 4640 range where it has previous support. 4750 is a major resistance level, it will take very big bull push to break this level to upside.

We have very strong support at 4640 region and if you have short, this would be one place to cover it. 

So far in 2011 we have seen lower highs and lower lows which is a very clear indication of market has more supply than demand. Very interesting article to read on this topic - money outflowing from BRIC nations (Bloomberg).

Looking at the Nifty action of recent times, I believe that we will see 4450 region price in next couple of days or weeks and then we will be able to see markets next path..... (may be more shorting or range bound movement)....(I really didn't say to short really......)

SPX is also in the overbought area. Looks like we are heading towards the 1225 price range as well. But again this is a low trading week and we will get good idea about the markets situation next week onwards.

In general, not really expecting major movement in market and chances of market going down is higher than going up.

12-27 Market Analysis

Light volume day as expected. This week is suppose to be the low volume  week and may not have major movement as we will see less participation from big funds. All major stocks also have the  light volume day as well. I don't see much change in the market leader.

Nifty is at the key level and in past we have seen major jump from this level also without major volume.

SPX is standing at the key resistance level and we have seen major fall from this level so its a interesting situation. Today there hasn't been major activity in SPX as well.

Looking at this situation, i don't expect to have major changes in the market (unless we hear something from Europe :) )....

This should be a very light day.......

December 07 Possible Trades

WIPRO - Today breakout of his 390 range with heavy volume. High risk long trade opportunity would be to add long position between 398 - 404 and stop below 385 and watch/cover around 430 price range.

    For day traders,  you can play around key price level 404 and 407.

11-07 Market Analysis

Nifty seems to have a little resistance at 5060 (which is visible on weekly chart). Nifty is having difficulty crossing this level since last 3 days. We are seeing the same volume as three days ago but daily range is half than December 2 which is a bearish action. Looking at the effect of the Europe news, i would not add the long term positions. 

Following are the key levels for the day traders. At this level one can watch for patterns for high probability trades. Immediate Key price level 5073,5156 and 4978.

12-5 Market Tip update

Maruti - Close the position. It has given us good 5%

KFA - Close the position. It has also given us little over 5%.

12-5 Market Analysis

As we have seen in last couple of weeks, market makes moves based on the news. Nifty has has the doji at the end and this means little trend change. I don't see much volume today so big funds are on sidelines and waiting for some action to happen.

Today S&P threaten to downgrade 15 Eurpoe nation's rating which should create major effect in the market. Most stocks in S&P 500 and Nifty didn't have volume to support the recent really. SPX is standing at the key level and Nifty is looking weak too. 

If Nifty breaks Fridays low, then chances are market will at least test the last two days support which is around 4930 and if news channel support the bearish view we may cover little bit of Thursday's gap. If we get bearish mindset today, Day trader should be able do good.

One Risky strategy to try is to have limit short order at 4990 and cover it at 4945 with stop at 5035.

Please utilize the comments section send any questions/comments regarding my posts.

12-1 Market Analysis

As expected today market gapped up today. It looked like we would see 3-4% kind of gain today. But closing was poor at the best. Since the starting of the market, i don't see any strong force to go up. All major Nifty Stocks have the same behavior. They all ended up lossing their most of the daily gains and closed the the bottom of the pile which is not a good sign for long term movement. we should see Nifty going down little tomorrow. 

I am not excited about todays closing, it shows the weakness in the market. No need to create long term position at this point. This is a day traders market but they will have problem making money as its called a royal choppy market....

Play safe and have a good trading to all

11-30 Market Analysis

Based on the action in US market, we should see the positive day. Today can be a good day for day traders as well. Yesterday was a very position day for us. If we see a push in the price, 5100 range looks possible very soon.

Again, Maruti, EDUCOMP, KFA looks very strong for positive moves. In this positive market this will make major move.

11-29 Market Tips

Pantaloonr -  Bearish action in last two days. If tomorrows market doesn't have positive sign, this baby can be a good shorting possibility. 


One possible trading option: Short price 202 cover price 177 and stop price 212

11-29 Market Analysis

Market gave up allmost all the gains of yesterdays. Still we have yesterdays gap. Major stocks in NSENIfty fell as well but worry part is that they fell with the volume higher than last two days. It seems like NSENifty is working towards filling the gap of yesterday. Market may spend some time in the range before deciding its path.  So far i don't see this as a good setup for long trades. 

NSEMidcap index looks very positive here. I see the volume supporting the price movement. I would watch this index very closely for long trades. 

BankNifty had a major bearish action. If market goes down from here, bank stocks may be the best one to short.  

11-28 Market tip

EDUCOMP -  This stock has the highest volume of last couple of years. This can be a long term player.  It looks like a good trading candidate if it retraces 50% of todays gain with very light volume.  But in general this stock should settle down around 240 ranger for some time before it tries to make bigger jump. For long term player they should get excited about this stock after it breaks 250 range.

This baby will be in my very close watch from now.

11/28 Market Analysis

Todays gap up opening was good for the market but there wasn't enough volume to support the gap up. As of now, i was very excited about the Thursday's NSENIfty action and I was feeling good about Fridays NSENifty's action. But certinly todays actions seems like a weak really. Until we see positive volume-price history in next couple of days, I consider this as a weak really. I would not be surprised if we see market cover the gap this week. I am staying away from this market for now.

Again this seems to be the weak really until proved otherwise by markets action in next couple of days.

SPX key stocks looks weak too. They all allmost opened gap up and closed poorely with out little higher volume but not enough to be excited. I also consider the spx really as a weak really as well.

Next day or two will clear the picture for us about the really. It may be big funds trying to close their position or we may have big funds participation in near future.

Please trade safe with good placed stops.

11-23 Market Analysis

NSENIfty looks like just went through bloodbath. But if you look at
the weekly graph, we don't see heavy volume pushing it down to dirt.
That tells us that there are not much push to go down and big funds
are optimistic. If the funds are affraid, we should see heavy volume.
In recent weeks we have seen more positive weeks than negative weeks.

If funds don't participate in this selling really next week, we should
see 5060 level and if they do participate, we should see around 4300
level. Looking at last 3 weeks action, i believe its a time to touch
5060 but again we can only speculate and market has its own mind.

I am still not comfortable to take trade. But a single positive sign
and i will be in the market

11-22 Market Analysis

 As expected, NSENIfty didn't move much. We didn't have negative sentiment in the market that helped it today. 

 Closed positively at this level, I didn't like the closing but like the volume.  I am still not getting confident to trigger a trade. Lets wait and see how the world markets closes tonight before making decision about trade.

11-21 Market analysis

Nsenifty went to all the way till 4778... almost at the key support level. But the way it fell with decent volume is worry point. Todays setup is not really good to get excited so please wait and watch next day or two before getting excited to start a long position. Volume is not lower as well that is a worry point here.

I would like to wait for a day to see the where does market heads. This certainly has been the support zone in past couple months. It will need a major negative sentiment in the market to break this level. My feeling is that we should see some positive movement from this level.

  

This is a level where I usually get excited about to get into trade....... but looking at the current world market i am waiting for the confirmation.

Reviewing past tips

Maruti had a lower closing today but i still consider there is a possible bounce waiting to happen in this stock. Tomorrow should be the key for this stock. Lets see where does it move tomorrow.

KFA we should see a major action happening in very near future... still worth buying at todays close with stop 23.11.

CIPLA--> looks like it is moving towards 300 level.

VDOCONINTL - good shorting candidate. Very bearish close today. Shorting entry price - 86 stop 89 cover price - 79

11/20 weekend analysis

NSE Indexes update:

NSEIT, BankNifty, NSE500 and NSENifty all are looks to be in the support area. It wasn't a special volume week as well. I saw many Dojis in the market last friday. In general, dojis with volume represents reversals. 

IT sectors looks to have a short term jump.till 6150.

NSE500 is at the support as well. It has higher chances to go to 3960. It will need a heavy volume to breakout the low support at 3816. Likely scenario seems to be 3960.

NSENifty has very good closing but we didn't have much volume to support the good close at this range. Unless bad news are waiting in this market, we should see higher close in nifty. We should see 4940 but if heavy volume comes, we will see market reversing from this range. 

I would wait to see todays action before getting excited about this market. High risk trader can take the long side trade with stop below Fridays low. 

I am little positive about this market now.

Good Trading Guys

11/19 Market Tips

KFA looks like still a good opportunity. It has a very heavy accumulation. Heaviest volume in last couple of years. As I follow the funds, i will have this in my close watch. Based on my experience, this kind of stocks can go very high if they get support and it usually happens after funds invest heavily.

CIPLA Still a bearish action... one can probably short this at 315 till 301 stop at 3128.10

MARUTI - Right at hte 61.8 fib retracement of 2 years. Closes a a hammer with very heavy volume. In my book this is a buy right at the support with good hammer close and heavy volume. 

Wait a day to see tomorrows close and then we will setup the entry price. Good entry price would be 952 stop at 927 and cover at 1010. I would start with small quantity.

11/18 Market Analysis

NSENIFTY  opened up gapped-down today but held it well at the end of the day. Like SPX its also right at the support. If US and Europe market close positely today, we will see 4950 - 5000 range tomorrow as they are minor resistance levels. Market is still in the range so not a good one to trade. If those market goes down, we may see Nifty heading down towards 4850 region. I will be interested in Nifty at that level.

11/17 market analysis

Looks like SPX is at the key support level and if it breaks from here next support target is 1150-1180 region. Looking at the todays action, it looks like we will see this 1175 price before prices stables or go up. One can short SPX with tight stop at 1225. As I said it before, this is not my kind of market. I am waiting for everything to come to support area which looks like we will see in next couple of days.

11-17 possible trades

balramchin- Action shows back to support story. if it hits 44 then adding some with tight stop may be a good idea. Until wait for next day or two

cipla- Shorting may be added here where short price is 314 cover at 300 and stop price at 317 very bearish action today

kfa -  Another entry may be at 23.75 with stop at 23.14 and cover at 28 it still is a good trading opportunity

11/17 Market analysis

As i said yesterday, nsenifty is still in a bearish territory. Weekly graph shows big sign of bearishness in NSEInfty and S&P500 (US).  Shorting NSENifty is the best approach if one wants to play with it. Market is still inbetween the range so in a day or two it can move any side. 

Its a risky market and prices are still in the rante hasn't reached the support or resistance. My gut feeling is that based on todays action, we may see 4885 in nifty tomorrow.

Spx is still in a bearish territorry. Weekly graph shows the real bearishness. It is right at the support level. if it breaks 1208 level; next support is very low from here. And again, I will wait till it hits the Support or resistance, i don't trade in ranges. Its too risky. If you are a super day trader and have to trade something then i would go with shorting.

Good trading everybody

11/17 possible trades

Kfa kingfisher looks like a good long trade. Entry price would be around yesterdays close and exit price is around 27.50 to 28 Looks like a winner for long run as well Happy trading guys

11/16/2011 Analysis

Good setup today in NSENIFTY. Market still looks tobe in bearish territory. But immediate bounce looks possibility. Todays close was strong among last 7 days close. 

I wouldn't be surprised if nifty touches 5150 in next 2-3 days and come back down to todays range. But if we get positive bar with volume then we should be good for atleast week or two.

US market S&p main indicator looks to be confused as well. But it also has chances for short term 2-3 days of up move. May be 1-3% up  then come back down without volume.