Feb 29 Market Analysis (US)

S&P took out yesterdays gain and went 0.5% down. I don't see this as a major thing. We have seen the same pattern in this market. Breakout and then consolidation.

S&P had higher selling today. Compare to price movement it was little higher selling. One days little higher negative action doesn't change the overall trend in this market.

But the real worry part for me is the overbought-oversold ratio. It suddenly went to much higher negative side. It has reached at this level first time since December 14th.

This is a good time to start moving your stops closer as this may be a critical moment for this market. 

Feb 29 Market Tips (NSE)

I don't feel comfortable to trade in this market...... But after looking at many graphs, I have some favorite stocks to keep an close watch

Tatasteel, axisbank, looks strong if market behaves positively tomorrow, I will be looking for entry in to this one

LT,maruti,sintex is available at good price for long entry

GVKPIL looks very interesting one.

 

For very high risk taker.... Maruti looks ok for long position entry at 1245 with stop at 1215 and cover at 1332....

Feb 29 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty had a very volatile day, gaped up opening following by break of yesterdays high towards downside and then suddenly went up. I am sure many Nifty day traders were got crushed today.

Todays action shows demand is there in the market but we have supply on top of todays high. It seems to be strong supply then demand.  Looking at todays Nifty move, I believe tomorrow we should see no move day of little lower day.

In nutshell, it was a positive breadth day but not a strong positive breadth day. Oversold-overbought ration barely turned positive today.

Looking at the volatile market situation, I fell its better to stay in cash.

But if one has to invest, they should only invest in a strong stocks and not the weak one. Last two days suggest demand is there in the market but at the same time supply has entered today.

Cash is the king for now......

Feb 28 Market Analysis (US)

S&P finally broke the resistance at 1370 and now heading towards 1387 resistance. Since start of the rally, we have seen the similar pattern of consolidation and breakout and consolidation. Market is moving very slowly and keeping making higher highs in this market. Market hasn't broken the bullish trendline which is strong sign of this market.

Market breadh is not showing much action. Oversold-Overbought ratio is staying very low that shows that not many stocks are making higher highs. Many stocks are consolidating at the top or pulling back. This has been the same situation since last 3 weeks. I am sure it can be fustrating at time for many trader as market is not moving fast.

I don't believe, we are seeing much buying or selling either.

Until we see heavy negative breadth in this market, this is a good market to keep looking for very low volatile good setup for long entry. One has to have patient in this market to make money.

Feb 28 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty today went up 1.8% with very strong breadth and we have strong dollar volume as well. But in last 5 days we have heavy negative breadth than positive breadth. This can be a short reversal move. Until we see Nifty crossing above yesterdays high, we should not be taking much risk in either side. If this is really a strong positive demand, we should be another high positive breadth day tomorrow which should push entire market up. But if this is just a shock reversal, we should see closing in the same range but Nifty can make little lower low tomorrow. 

Yesterday, Nifty touched Fibonancci 38.2% retracement of this years gain, which usually serves as a strong resistance zone and reversal from this area is expected. 

Overbought-oversold ratio lost yesterdays all negative move and if we have one positive day, it will turned into positive zone that may start another bull move and we should be looking for long positions then. 

Market is in very volatile condition so one has to be very careful how they trade. The blog readers who took the shorting trade in last 4 days have made good money now its time to relax and watch the market.

I will be surprised if market will just go up from here in day or two as we have major selling behind us. But again nobody can predict the market. 

I will be waiting to see tomorrows market action and then will decide on the possible trade.

Strong Stocks: BankIndia,beml,cadilahc,sintex,bhartiartl, maruti,asianpaint,bgrenergy,godrejind, hdil,.ivrclinfrA, LT,

Feb 27 Market Analysis (US)

UAN: Good entry seems to be at 25.50 with stop at 24.48 and cover at 27.41 or 29.33

AFL: Entry at 46.59 with stop at 45.45 and cover at 50.13

As you can see these are pullback entries and I don't feel comfortable chasing high-flyers.

Feb 27 Market Analysis (US)

We are not seeing any major movement in this market but market is not loosing its momentum. Every dip we have seen buyers and so far I don't see anything negative about this market.

S&P today made highest high since June 2008 and closed little lower but the way market is moving this level will be broken in next couple of days. Volume is going down and still market is making higher high. shows that nobody wants to sell in this market.

I am going to look for good long position which is again hard to find as everything seem to be extended here.....

Feb 27 Market Tips (NSE)

Update: Don't take any short position now......Please ignore or cover HDIL and JPAssociate...


Cover finantech at 817 (current price)


All other short candidate has reached the cover price yesterday.... so we must be out of them by now.....

For now lets look at the some of the weakest stocks which have setup well

HDIL:  Shorting at 102.30  stop at 107.51 and cover at 90 or 83. I see heavy selling in this stocks since last 4 days and  this stocks has smooth downwardsd movement which makes me believe that this one can be a good shorting candidate. the only worry point I have is that it has been going down since last 4 days so its down movement should slow down now...... but still worth a shot....

I will be surprised if this one get filled .... but lets seeee

JPassociat: Shorting at 71.50 stop at 74.05 cover at 60 

It broke recent pivot point and went down. I would like to buy right at the pivot point and see how it behaves after that.

I started preparing Strong stocks and weak stocks list. I will be publishing that daily frequently. The reason behind publishing strong stocks list now is because the stocks which looks strong in this bear market will be the winner once market recovers from this selling. This list will be changed frequently but this is the basis and I may add or remove stocks from this list......

Strong stocks: TataSteel,lovable,maruti,tcs,mcdowell,bhartiartl, asianpaint,cadilahc,cairn,hindpetro,itc

Feb 27 Market Analysis (NSE)

Today we had a 2.7% down day in Nifty.  On Feb 22nd, there were many big stocks dropped like rock and that was the start of our Short trading. Looking at todays action, we had similar negative market breadth but lower than Feb 22 dollar-volume selling. That shows that today there were many mid cap stocks dropped big time. This is a systematic cycle selling and I believe, by tomorrow many investors just want to take their profit and that will force this market into rapid selling spree and we may loose this years gain in next week of two if we don't get demand back into the market which I hardly believe happen in next couple of days.

Today and Feb 22nd shows highest selling of last 1 year. So, yes this is major deal for the market. If you holding onto you long positions, you need

There is a another point to this what if market reverses from here and I would be left alone. Yes that is a valid point and if you think like that than in this kind of a market you may loose most of your profit. The better suggestion would be to invest in funds.

Overbought-oversold ratio today turned major declining area. That shows that many stocks are entering into oversold area and we may see follow through tomorrow in Nifty and in general market.

This is the time to look for good shorting position...... 

Yes in order to be successfull in this market you have to trade both ways........ 

I strongly believe that analyzing the market on daily basis will give us an good advantage. If we see strong demand coming into the market, we will cover our short position until then let it ride.......

Feb 24 Market Tips (NSE)

TataSteel and Mcdowell looks very strong in this market. If market reverses from here they are very good candidate for long positions

ABB: Shorting at 848 with stop at 880 and cover price at 777. Heavy volume selling of last two days may force this stock to 10% down in very short time....

we have this 3 shorting tips working for us.....


Updatate

SESAGOA: Sell 50% at 223 and move stops to 234

SBIN - Move stop to 2323

Orientbank - Sell 25% at 281 and move stop to 299

Feb 24 Market Analysis (NSE)

This week will be very important for the market. We had seen major selling last week. But we haven't seen follow through selling which is not good for shorting positions. If Nifty closes lower than 5333 then we have next support area at 5166.

Market breadth is not very negative hence we may see little reversal in this week. Overbought-Oversold ratio hasn't turned strongly negative as well. Looking at both of this indicator, unless we see higher selling, I believe we may certainly see reversal (mostly short term)

I still believe, short position will work better in this market but investors seems to be still bullish in this market. If  investors starts selling spree... we may see lowest lower of this year soon. This week is very critical for this markets direction...

Its time to move stops closer to our shorting position and see how market reacts to our positions.

I am still going to look for good shorting candidate until we see strong positive market breadth.

Feb 23 Market Tips (NSE)

Yesterday SESAGOA,  orientbank and SBI came to our price, and we will hold them to see how they behave.


SESAGOA: sell 50% at 217 and move stop to 234


Finantech: Shorting at 849 stop at 877 with cover price at 761 


MCDowell looks good for long setup but let it settle down for couple of days before I make any decision.

Feb 23 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty had a light selling today and it was a follow through day. Looking at the current action we may see Nifty hitting 5414 price in next couple of days. Again, I was very surprised with the markets behavior, yesterday. Usually, you see couple of consolidation then you should see that kind of climactic selling in the market but it seemed like somebody knows something.

Does it mean big investors sold big time? Not really, that may mean that they have some information which individual investor doesn't have it and they are loading or unloading stocks big time. They may want to get stock at cheaper price and hence they moved the market down and collected their favourite stocks or they just want to get out as they don't see market making any higher soon........

Looking at  todays market action, I don't see there is big negative sentiment in the market. Everybody is holding to their stocks as they still believe there is higher price possibility. But if we have another round of selling in day or two, we will see big down days follow through in this market. 

Apparently, media doesn't want to lower this market and they are not generating negative mindset everywhere so we may see rebound in this market.

Market will tell us in next couple of days but till then, I will be looking for good shorting candidate.

Feb 22 Market Analysis (US)

Are we following the same pattern since start of the bull move on Dec 20th? Probably yes, breakout and then consolidation.

Market breadth is building light negative breadth since last couple of days but its nothing big to worry about. We are still in bull market until proven otherwise.

Overbought-oversold ratio is turning low again, that means many stocks are topping out and they are pulling back or consolidating against some resistance. We can easily find many extended setup in this market. I will be worried to take any breakout trade at this moment.

Big caps are not showing much movement expect they are either pulling back or topping out.

I am going to be looking into pullback trade or stocks under heavy accumulation.......for long setups

Trade safe and keep your stops.....

2-22 Market Tips (NSE)

Banks: I have been saying from couple of weeks that banks look very weak to me and this will be the first shorting opportunity I will be looking into...

I have two stocks which i believe seems to be the best opportunity for shorting, SBIN and ORIENTBANK.

They both have been going up without much volume built up and they both have around 200% volume selling today and they both are 8% down yesterday. Catching both seems hard so I am going to suggest both and you can pick which ever can work for your......after your research

SBIN: Short at 2308 with stop at 2352 and target 2135
Orientbank: Short at 293 with stop at 307 and target at 263 (it has little support at 280 so watch out for reversal)

Adanipower: shorting at 88.42 with stop at 92 and cover at 77 or 70

Sesagoa:  shorting at 239 with stop at  253 and cover at 214 or 195.

ACC is also another candidate for shorting........

This doesn't seem like to be the time to go all in...... but I believe, this is a decent confirmation to start taking some shorting trade.....

If market reverse from here (very low chances.... for it to get strength very soon) but just prepared for it
IVRCLINFRA, Sintex and mcdowell-n looks very good if market rebounds......

2-22 Market Analysis (NSE)

I can't believe at what I am seeing on the screen. Really---- I can't seem to understand this.

As my daily routine, I track daily rupee volume or positive and negative stocks. Today I see highest negative rupee volume since Jan 27,2010. That shows major funds are unloading big time in this market. We must see follow up tomorrow to confirm the weakness in this market. I certainly think that tomorrow will be down day. If it becomes a major down day than NIFTY may break all immediate support and market can loose all this years gain soon.

This is the time traders must start changing their hats (not all the way) to little bearish side and start looking for shorting trades as they will have higher chances to success.

Market may push back up tomorrow in shock but if it doesn't have strength then bull market in trouble

I will be looking for a good shorting opportunity.

Feb 21 Market Tip (NSE)

I don't see any good opportunity. I started seeing some good shorting candidate in the market.

LT and  apollohosp are setting up well for shorting and if we receive Nifty confirmation for shorting, we will try to get hold of these two for shorting.

Feb 21 Market Analysis (US)

We are against the long term resistance and we saw the supply coming in the marker today. S&P closed bottom of the bar. Today supply has upper hand than demand.

Market breadth is not showing much action and overbought-oversold is also not showing much information as well. Last week overbought-oversold ration came close and I thought it was about be ready for pullback and sudden demand came to market which pushed the overbought ratio higher in the market.

Most big caps are around their resistance area and not moving much.

I am still looking for a good long setups which are not extended...

Feb 21 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty had the similar demand again today and it close at yesterday's high. Again for everydip in this market we have seen new buyers steeping into the market. But my yesterdays prediction stays the same, we really need a pullback for more healthy push in this market or I would like to see heavy volume coming into this market which should take this price higher than today's closing.

Be conservative to add new position in your portfolio. Watch your stops carefully for old position and see if you can move little closer to recent pivot points. 

Many people are getting excited to see Nifty closing higher. But seasoned trader are watching every move carefully now.

Big caps are not shoivrcwing much exiting picture as well. Most had a positive day but not anything special. It will be interesting to see tomorrows action.

Again, I am not bearish with this market and keep looking for a good long setup but will be conservative for adding new position.

Feb 17 Market Tips (US)

CNP: This stock has been in uptrade since start of 2009. It has moved more than 210% during this time frame, with little pullback.  The stock seems to be under accumulation since last 4 weeks.  Looking at the current action, this can be a good opportunity to add right at the multi year support of 18.63. The only problem with this stock is that it has Earning on feb 29th and I don't like to hold during earnings. In past I have burned enought to hold during earning so I may remove it from my protfolio during earning time. 

Good entry price 18.75 stop price at 18.40 wtih cover price at 19.80.

bzh: Strong IBD industry ranking and this is allmost bottom of the pile stock in that industry. May add a light position in this one. If this one can get little momentum, it can move  much faster than leaders in this industry. 

Good entry price:3.49 with stop at 3.33 and cover at 4

DHI: From the same homebuilding  industry group as BZH but this is a industry leader and adding position in this one sounds like a good idea. I went through many stocks in this industry and most seems to be under accumulation and industry seems to in momentum after  1.5 years of consolidation which is a good sign for bigger move in future. 

good buy price 14.31 with stop at 13.98 and cover at 15.30.

Feb 19 Market Analysis (NSE)

Is this the end of Rally? Many people might be wondering in the NSE market. Media certainly must have started their part to invite bearish analyst and started paying them big bucks to start analyzing the market in bearish territory. I have received a call from very close friend with the similar question.

In reality, nobody knows and nobody can know. What we can do is understand markets current situation and then provide probability of where it may move in next couple of sessions. That's all we can do. People with the ego cloud can't survive in this market as know body can predict the market.

Lets begin analyzing the current situation.

Based on the graph, we can see that Nifty has made very amazing run in last 8-9 weeks. Supporting trend line is almost at 45 angle, which is very very hard to find in any market for this long.

But this Fridays action has made me worried. As you may know, I don't like to see gap ups on top of the market. We had gap up opening and closed in red candle which is a very very negative move in this market at this time. Entire days spread has been around 60 and market gave up 40 rs. at closing. That means it wasn't a strong day at all and it looked like fabricated gap up move in the market.

Friday we had the weakest market breadth compare to price movement since start of the rally. This happening after such a big move shows weakness in moving higher.

Our immediate support is at 5417. Anything below 5330, we may be looking at 5166.

I am not bearish yet but strongly believe that pullback is really needed in this market.

Feb 16 Market Tips (NSE)

TataSteel :  This stock had a great run. We had a strong volume support in recent past and came back to test the breakout / pivot price and remove the weak hand from this market. For me this is still a little risky entry here. But looking at he market, everything is making big move and we hardly get another chance.

I still believe, adding light position at this price may not be a bad idea but only light position as this is a risky area.
 Entry price 476 with stop below 465 and target is  500  or 550.

IVRCLINFRA:  I believe this is my third posting on this stock in last 1 week. Yes, I love this setup.  I would not suggest adding future contracts but I would suggest adding very light positions for long term holding at 54.20. I would not be surprised if it goes all the way to 50.50 to test the pivot breakout.

SINTEX : Love this stock. Dying to add this one to my portfolio but lets see if i can resist till  96 and buy at 96 with stop below 92.

Feb 16 Market Analysis (NSE)

Another good closing (not strong). I would have hoped it to go little higher than yesterdays high and then close on the top.

Market breadth is also looking very strong here. Overbought/oversold index is showing strength, we must be seeing many stocks breakouts or making higher highs in this market.

With this movement in this market, I certainly hope to see 5700 in this market very soon. We have support at 5418 but with this kind of market breadth, I don't expect to close below 5460.

Big cap had a massive run in last couple of days and they took some rest today. We had light volume day compare to yesterday but still good enough volume. Many are setting up very well for our portfolio.

Feb 15 Market Tips (NSE)

ADANIENT - Good entry would be at 363 with stop below 348 and safe target is 390 and long term target is 442. This stock has a heavy volume accumulation and this is a pullback entry which i always prefer. Also this is right at the previous pivot point. I would have loved to add at 359 but in this market it will be hard to imagine that it can come down to that price..

Finantech - Looks to be ready for shorting in very short time.

Sintex has a very good breakout, I would be looking add some on pullback only. I think this is good candidate to add long term position. For trading, we have to wait for the right moment.

IVRCLINFRA is right at the resistance, i don't like to buy here. I will wait for it to pull back or look for pullback after breakout. Once it will break 62.40, it will move fast and will look for entry at that time.

Feb 15 Market Analysis (US)

S&P today gave away all the gains of last two days. The thing i didn't like the most is that it made high of the price range today and then reversed back and gave up two days gain. 

I am seeing little higher negative breadth building up in this market than what we have seen in last 6 weeks. 

Overbought/oversold ratio is showing negative effect in this market. As I said it yesterday, one big down day will move it to negative side. If we get no movement or little down movement in the market, then it should turn into negative. This is the first time overbought/oversold ratio went to this low since Dec 28th. I believe little pullback will be healthy for this market now.

I am watching key levels here, 1331 and 1365. At those levels we will decide to have higher risk position or not.

I am still looking for low risk long positions here and not trying to catch breakouts here. 

Feb 15 Market Analysis (NSE)

NIfty had a dream closing today. We had a strong market breadth today, strongest since start of this bull move. One thing i can see is that, it seems like in today gap up day, most big cap stocks moved up rather than small caps, which is a strong market sign. I am expecting a following up day tomorrow, with this kind of strong push in the market.

I am sure many of you are thinking that, we should have been fully invested in this market to get big profit. But again, market works two ways, it very well could have gone gap down from here. We usually like to thinking about that aftermath and analyze the situation. But based on the yesterdays situation, I was better of in cash than fully invested. 

5700 looks to be reachable distance for this index. The way it is moving, If we don't see major down days, we should hit the 5700 mark in a week to two week time.

Big caps had a huge volume today. M&M, SBIN, Godrejcp and Bharatiartl looks weak and if the market goes down at any point, these will be the stocks to look for shorting.

Feb 14 Market Analysis

S&P had a good technical closing today. S&P had some negative days in last 5 sessions which is showing some selling after 3 weeks. Overbought ration is steadily going down since last 6 sessions which showing that market is not pushing stocks prices much higher anymore. We must be seeing congestion and light pullback all over the places. That shows that demand are drying up little bit.  In this situation, it is very normal to see weak hands (small inestors/traders) going into cash as they don't want to loose their profits and don't want to end up negative.

That doesn't mean that I am bearish with this market but little pullback in S&P can be helpful here. So far we have seen S&P making breakouts of each congestion area in last 6 weeks. 

Big cap seems to be just waiting for something to happen in this market. Looking at their price and volume actions of last week, it looks like they are strong holding up but little supply can make them move fast down.

I am watching key levels here, 1331 and 1365. At those levels we will decide to have higher risk position or not.

I am still looking for low risk long positions here and not trying to catch breakouts here. 

Feb 14 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty again  closed on the same range of 5425-5325. We have started getting some negative breadth in this market. That is usual trading behavior, traders don't want to loose their profit made in this last month and its a major move. Congestion usually forces weak hands out of the market as for normal investor/trader its hard to see the confusing news and stuck market together.  If we get some light down days at this range, we may see panicking selling and that may force a light pullback in the market. 

If market goes below 5229, we can easily see 5000 price range in Nifty.

Big caps are loosing the big demand as they are also stuck in the range.  

In this situation, I don't feel comfortable to suggest any trade in this market. 

I want market to move out of that 5425-5325 range and we will be, looking for good trading opportunities.

Feb 13 Market Tips (US)

Not trying to add any risky position at this level. 

I am very confused between GILD and SFLY. GILD is a momentum player, it had a great run in last month also it has big support of IBD followers. SFLY doesn't have momentum following but it has a decent volume in last two weeks this looks to be decent pullback entry at this level. Looking at market condition I don't want to add high risk position.

I am thinking about adding light position in both.....

GILD - (Looking for safe entry.... will be surprised if this get filled...)  Entry 53.94 ( in bull market i would have entry marked at 54.31) stop at 52.91 and cover at 56 or 57 (Major resistance.... that forced me to only look for light position.

SFLY - entry 26.60 stop 25.62 with cover price at 32. 

Feb 13 Market Tips (NSE)

Not really interested in suggesting any stocks. I would like to wait for market condition to settle down in any direction before taking any new position.


IVRCLINFRA - Ready to make big move. Looking at tight consolidation in recent time with 300% volume days in last 2 weeks suggest that something big going to happen in this stock. This kind of stock when they move in any direction can move up to 30% without much resistance/support. If market condition would have been good, I would have added this one without hesitation towards long side. 

Sintex looks to be setting up for a entry. I would hope it to come down till 86 but positive breakout of 100 can be a good buy with tight stop. It had some strong 400% volume days in last month. Somebody is buying this one big time and I need to follow this one again. Some of the blog reader made decent money in this one last month and this one seem to be ready for another big move and hopefully everybody can make money this time.

Apollohosp: Looks very weak since last 3 weeks. If market goes down this can be a good candidate to short till 555.

Feb 13 Market Analysis (US)

S&P moved positively on Greese news that is good sign. We have a positive breadth today in the market, it wasn't more than yesterdays negative breadth. If we have demand in this market, we should see closing above 1346 tomorrow.

Big caps don't look strong here. They don't seem to get any volume in last couple of days. Except Apple all other big caps look weak. If we get any supply here, they can go down easily as we don't seem to have strong demand on them. 

I am not thinking about adding any high risk position as market can move to any direction from here. 

Feb 13 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty had little selling today and didn't seem to move a lot based on Greese news. Nifty had 3 higher selling days in last 5 days. Since we had a gap up opening on Feb 6, market seem to be stuck in this range. This may be a market digesting major move of last month.

I see negative breadth but still not enough to get bearish in this market. If market doesn't move on major news, we have supply at this level and don't allow market to move any higher.

I am getting little concern with this bullish market and seems like we will see little pullback at the best in near future.

Feb 10 Market Tips (NSE)

TataSteel had a strong closing on Friday. If this is a true breakout, we should see breakout of 487 pivot point today. I received email from couple of people that they have missed out on this breakout. Again, if this a valid breakout, we should get a light pullback entry in a week or two. There is not need to chase this stock.

CadilaHC had weak closing on Friday. We don't need to chase this one. in next couple of days it should settle down and will give us idea about his where it will be headed.

I am not feeling well and didn't get time to analyze the market this weekend. Will hopefully find good opportunity tomorrow and post it.

Feb 10 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty has a strong positive breadth in the market on Friday. Nifty has developed a support area around 5336 and it is holding it up well. Based on the market breadth, Nifty can break current resistance level of 5419 in next couple of days.

On weekly graph, Nifty had a doji with high volume and we may see little reversal. Both are different ideas. But again we need to take one day at a time here.

Big caps had a down days but most had Hammer setup which is strong and most had  light volume than last 2-3 days which is not a negative sign. 

Still looking for low risk long positions, which will be hard to find at this stage. 

Feb 10 Market Analysis (US)

Last fridays, we had the highest negative market breadth since Dec 28th. It will be interesting to see how it closes on Monday. I am not bearish for now, as one day negative breadth has been reversed since Dec 19th.

We have big positive news coming out of Greece, I am expecting market to recover tomorrow just based on the news.

Still looking for good long setup which has light pullback and not looking for breakout.....

February 09 Market tips (US)

UNG - looks good and risky as well but worth buying. This is the kind of setups I look everyday....

   Buy at 5.14 and stop at 4.96 minimum target is 5.95 or  6.52

VIV: High risk one but still hodling a strong support here...  long at 27.44 with stop below 26.96 target is 29.63

Others to mention:  EXC and TRI looks good too but I don't want to add too many position at this price level.

CHKM.... very affraid of market. WIll give it tomorrows day and if it doesn't move than I will remove it from portfolio.

February 09 Market Tips (NSE)

CADILAHC - looks good for longer term move.... buy price below 666 with stop at 647 and wide stop at 631. This can be a long term player...


TataSteel looks good to me entry price at 450 with stop at 438 and target is 492.



MCDOWELL-N is setting up nice here.......we may be able to play that next week.
ADANIENT looks good pullback setup ..... will look at it next week as well

February 09 Market Analysis (NSE)

Nifty had a very strong closing today. Went back gap up opening of two days ago. And looking at the action we should see breakout tomorrow at this level. Everytime, I think this is a top, I got proved wrong. So this is what I am going to do from now, focus on the best setup in this market and play until I see big weakness in market breadth or overbought ratio turns down.  If I had focus on setups more than market condition,I would have been in very strong portfolio.

Market breadth still looks strong and overbought ratio is till good. Big caps look good too.....

Still bullish.... (did i say it?) until market breadth turns negative.......

February 08 Market Tips(US)

Not able to find a good trading opportunity


CHKM just had a strong volume and i am ready to take more risk in this one so thinking about moving my stops to 27.56.

CLGX looks very weak... tomorrow will remove it from portfolio

2-08 Market Tips (NSE)

Escorts still looks good for shorting here. My yesterdays analysis stays the same:
      shorting at 83.94 with stop at 86.20 and target price at 77.20
      But little high risk entry would be at shorting at 83 with stop at 85.15 and cover at 77.20.


DRREDDY:  Looks fell like rock in last three days but technical perspective it looks good right at the support.... good price to go long is between 1618-1608 with stop at 1591 and target is 1674.


CADILAHC : Entry price 651 stop 631 immediate target 690 and long term target 724

February 08 Market Analysis (US)

S&P seems to be ready to touch the 1356.  There is a consistence bid in this market. Demand seems to be so strong that every down days has buyers rushing into the market.

Again very light Market breadh action today. Nothing seem to be moving much in this market. 

Big cap also had a good day but we are loosing the volume from them. Since last three days, I don't see big volume comming into this market. We have some strong earning big cap with volume but again there are just few of them.

This is not a market to chase high flyer. Low volatility stocks with decent volume can be a good play here. 

Long setups still can work fine given we have very tight stops on them.

February 08 Market Analysis (NSE)

NIfty is still showing technical weakness. Close was at the 50% of the bar which is showing that we are hitting the supply zone and demand is there but not enought to push the price at top of the bar. We are at the resistane level and this is a expected behavior at this level. The longer we see weak closing the better chances we will have that this market can pullback further.

Market breadth went up little bit today but not significant enough to push the market up. 

 

Big cap stocks had a good day today. I see banks being strong here and TATASTEEL & M&M seems to be read to play at this price range.

Basically Market direction is not still clear.  I would be conservative with my trading as market can go in any direction from here and it may be faster move.....

February 07 Market Tips (US)

Again, its not a good time to take high risk positions...... but here are some ideas for tomorrow

CHKM: Entry 28.05 with stop at 27.80 and target is 29.35

CLGX: Entry at 14.20 with stop at 13.89 and target is 14.90

February 07 Market Tips (NSE)

Not a idea situation to trade in this market but I see some good shorting opportunities and here they are:

M&M :  Good shorting setup.... Short at 711 with stop at 725 and decent target seems to be at 686.

Escorts: shorting at 83.94 with stop at 86.20 and target price at 77.20

Again market is risky to don't load up on this position..... i would play little on this position....

February 07 Market Analysis (US)

S&P had a good technical closing today but Market Breadth shows not much activity in this market. Everybody seem to be waiting for market to move in any direction before they start making big decision.

 If we get demand in this market , we may hit the 1363 range or it may test the next immediate support is at 1325.

Big cap not showing much movement either. They have a very light volume day as well.  

INTC and IBM looks  very strong here ... but don't feel excited to take trade at this high....

Again, market can go in any direction from this point so we have to take one day at a time.....

February 07 Market Analysis (NSE)

Today Nifty had a gap up open and then fell like a rock to allmost 2% down then open range. This usually happens before the reversals as big investors wants stocks from breakout traders buy order and take them for shorting.  This is a one strong climactic action here.

I don't see strong negative breadth and market is still overbought. Those two things doesn't show a lot of negativity in this market. So far, We had a one major negative breadth day on Jan 30th, 

Next support levels are 5330 and 5230 area. If those two levels are broken then, we are looking for bigger pullback from here.

Most big cap ended up in read too. Banks look strong here (do they know I am going to short them soon?).. Big cap started going down with volume here, which may be a early sign of turning point.

I am not suggesting to take higher risk as market can go down anywhere from here.... but I believe at least a short term pullback seems to be a good possibility now.

2-06 Market Tips (US)

PTEN - Good condolidation in this price range since last 3 weeks.

Good entry price seems to be at 18.3 with stop at 17.75 and target at 19.42 or 21.20.

CLGX seems to be ready to bounce from narrow range.....

2-06 Market Tips (NSE)

I don't able to find any good setups.... Most are over extended or in a range.



Update about past tips:

PTC:  should be sold. Current price: 54.85
Dabur - should be sold.  Current price: 99.40
Gail - Sell another 50% at current price 388.80 and move stop to 376.

2-06 Nifty Analysis (NSE)

Nifty again had a gap up day. I am sure buy now you guys know that I don't like gap up days. It makes it hard to predict next days movement. Its against the resistance area and it will need strong demand to break this level. 

So far we have seen buyers on every pullbacks so I wouldn't be surprised if we see a strong demand here. Most people who tried to short this Nifty has lost money in last month and I don't suggest anybody to short at this level without any confirmation. Our goal here is not to make the maximum money but taking high probability trade. I have seen people loosing more money trying to make maximum profit than people who play probability game.

Breadth is still strong in this market and until I see strong negative breadth in this market, I will be bullish in this market. Big caps have been showing selling since last couple of days which concerns me a bit.

If Market breadth goes to negative, I am looking forward to short bank stocks as they look weak to me.

At this level, I like to see consolidation or pullback.... but again there is been persistence bid in this market.... 

Keep your stop tight and look for good setups.

2-3 Market Analysis (US)

S&P closed very strong on Friday. I don't weakness in the market breadth. We are right against the resistance of 1347 and lets see how market behaves at this level.

We may see a consolidation because so far we have seen positive breadth in this market. Until we can see strong negative breadth / major weakness in this market,  I am going to try to find good long setups in this market. But one has to be careful in selecting the setups..... i don't suggest selecting high-flyers in this market.

2-3 Market Tips (NSE)

I am not able to find any good long setup here.... most setups seems to be setting up for short entry....


Escorts looks to have quick reversal here
Sintext going to be a good setup once it crosses 100 market

2-3 Market Analysis (NSE)

Today I will have short update about the market

We are approaching the strong resistance area of 5363 and we need strong positive market breadth to cross that level. I don't anticipate it to happen in a day but looking at the current action, anything is possible with this market.

I am not seeing any weaknesses in the market. Weekly and daily market looks very good for long. Big cap stocks looks strong as well. 

Certainly overbought market so please keep you stops in place while trading.

2-2 Market Tips (US)

Not trade suggestion for today.

But interestingly I am able to see interesting price movement for some ETFs

EWH, EWG, IWB looks ready for shorting....

UNG looks for long 

2-2 Market Tips (NSE)

Not looking for any new position in this market for today. I will update P&L statement this weekend but looking a the past trades we are looking into major profits here.... if we continue like this we should be able to grab over 100% before we reach end of the year. And surprisingly, we don't have to be in front of the computer entire day to trade like this.




Update:

PTC: remove the target and move the stop to 47.79

LT: we didn't get filled on this one but if we don't see weakness in the market. One can still try to keep the order open at 1320 as mentioned yesterday.

DABUR- cover 50% profit. and move stop to 93.70

GAIL - cover 25% profit and move stop to 366

2-2 Market Analysis (NSE)

Again a gap up day. Either no body wants to sell in this really or we have strong demand in this market. Market breadth is showing weakness for this gap up day we really didn't have strong breadth for today. Today Nifty had a very narrow day with decent volume.

Big cap are showing little weakness as well. Compare to Nifty big cap stocks didn't have strong day.

Overbought/oversold indicator is showing a possible reversal today first time since January 3rd.

I believe if we don't get big demand in day or two.... we should see a major down days.

This market is full of weakness and strong overbought situation which can't sustain much without any pullback or consolidation.

One can try shorting NIfty at 5315 with stop just above 5333 and see how it plays out. It is very risky but if you see weakness in the media in the morning and in the market, you can try that out.

2-2 Market Analysis (US)

S&P didn't make much move today but didn't have negative breadth day.  Good sign is that it didn't loose yesterdays gain. 

This is a overbought market and until I will see any negative market breadth, I will be buying good setups but not looking to buy big breakouts on top now. I know at this end most good setup will be at the top but they are risky in my book. 

Overbought / obversold ration seems to be fine as well. Big caps stocks are again showing some weakness second day in row. 

S&P still trading in the very strong trend lines and until it is broken with heavy negative breadth, I am going looking for long setups as they have been working out well for me.

Keep your stops tight and careful about the stocks you pick...... Main goal should be to preserve the profit

2-1 Market Tips (US)

GBX: Good buy price 22.38 with stop price at 21.96 and cover price seems to be 24.20. It is having very tight consolidation since last 7 days and recently got a heavy volume. Price looked beaten up but recently stable.

ELN - Good price to enter is 14.18 and stop  at 13.98 with target at 15.
.

Still not a good idea to have major positions, this are the idea i believe looks good

2-1 Market Analysis (US)

S&P ended up 1% up today with decent market breadth which is a good sign. I am not seeing major negative market breadh in this market but every dip there are buyers and they seems to keep taking this market up.

I liked the S&P to close strong at the top of the bar. Looks like it retraced back down 20% of the bar today. It looks like we have good amount of supply above 1326 price and until strong demand comes over we will see this kind of choppy actions in the market.

Yesterday, It looked like it was ready to show weakness in the market and today it just jumped higher.

Big cap stocks were mostly down during the day or closed below 50% today. This kind of conflicting sign shows the market weakness.

Looking at the above situation, I am still not bearish but still seeing weakness in this market. One has to think about protecting their money rather than taking big risk in this market.

2-1 Market Tips (NSE)

Again not suggesting to add big position..... (Entry only if market seems positive)
PTC: good entry price between 48-49 and stop price is at 47 and decent cover price seems to be 53

LT: good entry price between 1320 - 1309 with stop price at 1285 and cover price at 1388  

2-1 Market Analysis (NSE)

We had a strong day today. Market breadth is strong as well. Today we had strongest market breadth after Jan 10. good breakout of the resistance. As always market has its own way, one can't predict the market. It looks true in last two days of action. we can just analyze the probability of this market but can't predict the market.

It went down 2.3% then recovered all looses and gained some, next day we see resistance breakout. I still believe this market is due for some rest now. A little supply can pull this market down 2-3% which we say 2 days ago.

I believe we should see 5360 leve in next day or two. We may see low market breadth as we have strong push in the back of this rally.

Big cap stocks were showing big weakness today. With this kind of mixed signal, I believe we have to be very careful in investing. This is the real weakness in the market.

One has to be conservative at this levels for investing as market can have big swings in any direction.

I am bullish in this market for now....I believe 5360 level is reachable in next day or two.